What’s on the Line in the States
Breaking down what flips can do in the 10 states we targeted in 2020.
The presidential race has understandably dominated most of the 2020 election cycle, but there are a number of high-stakes state legislative races taking place across the country as well. These races are important for several reasons: redistricting and the ongoing fight for fair maps; voting rights and the fight to expand, not restrict, ballot access; and policy, which matters because states will be our best defense against a conservative federal judiciary — and they will continue to play an important role in our response to the pandemic.
With the understanding that final election results will be delayed due to historic numbers of early and absentee voting — here’s our breakdown of what’s at stake in the 10 states that Flippable, along with Swing Left, invested in this year.
In 2018, three candidates supported by the Flippable community successfully flipped seats in the Arizona State House. Those flips, along with targeted investments and grassroots organizing efforts, have put control of the entire state House (31R–29D) in play. Control of the state Senate (17R-13D) is also up for grabs, which means Democrats have a chance to break a GOP trifecta in a Sun Belt state.
Flipping the Arizona State Legislature would have significant implications for policy. Take immigration: ten years ago, the GOP-controlled legislature passed Arizona’s infamous anti-immigrant “show your papers” bill, SB 1070. Although courts weakened the law in subsequent years, Republican legislators and Governor Doug Ducey appeared ready to usher in a new era of hardline anti-immigrant policy in early 2020 as they sought to ban “sanctuary cities.” Breaking the GOP’s singular hold on Arizona’s state government is the only way to ensure that anti-immigrant bills do not once again become law.
As for redistricting and voting rights, flipping both chambers of the legislature would ensure that Arizona’s independent redistricting process remains just that — and it would lay the groundwork for expanding ballot access. The latter is particularly important considering how Arizona Republican lawmakers have passed bills over the years aimed at making it harder for people, particularly Black, Latinx, and Native American voters — to cast their ballots.
Over the course of 2018, the Flippable community supported nine candidates who won seats in the Florida State House and State Senate. This election, our goal is to build upon those wins and break the GOP’s trifecta in Florida by flipping the state House (73R–47D).
A Democratically controlled Florida State House would be an invaluable buffer against the Florida GOP’s conservative and anti-democratic legislative agenda. One perfect example of why Florida desperately needs this change is the GOP’s rush to undermine Amendment 4’s restoration of voting rights to returning citizens, which 65% of Florida voters supported via ballot measure in 2018. By passing a bill that requires individuals to pay all fines and fees associated with their felony convictions before regaining their right to vote, the Florida GOP made its position on racial justice (over 20% of age-eligible Black Floridians couldn’t vote due to the state’s disenfranchisement law), criminal justice, voting rights, and the will of people painfully clear.
Over the years, notably in the 2018 midterms and most recently in the 2020 primaries, Georgia has made national headlines due to its relentless voter suppression. However, the Georgia GOP has also used gerrymandering to dilute voters’ voices. Flipping the Georgia State House (106R–74D) will give Democrats negotiating power during redistricting, making it harder for Republican lawmakers to enact racial and/or partisan gerrymanders for a second consecutive decade.
Iowa’s redistricting process is unique. Maps are drawn by a nonpartisan body and presented to the Iowa Legislature, which can only approve or reject the maps. If the legislature rejects the presented maps twice, then lawmakers are tasked with drawing new maps. Therefore, regardless of how Iowa chooses its final maps, flipping the Iowa State House (53R–47D) will guarantee that Democrats also have a say in approving the maps that are drawn in 2021.
The Flippable community supported eleven candidates who won their races for seats in the Michigan State House and State Senate in the 2018 midterms. Now, because of those flips, Democrats have the opportunity to flip the Michigan State House (58R–52D).
Since Michigan voters passed Prop 2, an independent redistricting ballot measure, in 2018, there’s less of a threat of Republican lawmakers once again gerrymandering the state’s maps. (Although the Michigan GOP did unsuccessfully attempt to block the implementation of the independent redistricting commission.) In terms of policy, having a Democratically controlled state House would provide Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer with much-needed support in the Michigan Legislature.
One Flippable candidate won her race for a North Carolina State House seat in 2018. That flip, in conjunction with the other eight seats Democrats picked up in the midterms, have made the North Carolina State House (65R–55D) competitive. Control of the state Senate (29R–21D) is also within reach this month. If Democrats succeed in flipping both chambers of the General Assembly and Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper holds onto the governorship, North Carolina will become a Democratic trifecta.
Due to the actions of the GOP, North Carolina has become notorious for gerrymandering, voter suppression, and harmful policies. Flipping the General Assembly would prevent another decade of racial and partisan gerrymandering that gives GOP lawmakers undue influence in the state. (In 2018, Democrats won 51% of the statewide vote for the state House but only won 45% of seats in the chamber.) Additionally, a Democratically led legislature could put an end to GOP inaction on matters of life and death, including gun control — no legislation has been passed since 2015, not even after the University of North Carolina Charlotte shooting in 2019 — and Medicaid expansion, which has taken on new urgency amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Ohio is no stranger to gerrymandering: in 2019, a federal court found evidence of partisan bias — in favor of the GOP — in the state’s congressional maps, but a Supreme Court ruling later that year stated that federal courts shouldn’t intervene in cases of partisan gerrymandering so voters won’t get new maps until after redistricting.
Thankfully, Ohio voters passed a redistricting ballot measure in 2018 that seeks to reform the process by requiring bipartisan support for congressional districts, specifically three-fifths support from both chambers of the legislature, including at least 50% of the members of the minority party. Our objective is to break the GOP’s supermajority in the Ohio State House (61R–38D) and give Democrats a bigger presence in the chamber, which will affect redistricting as well as policy-making by ensuring that Republican lawmakers won’t have unrestricted power to enact their conservative agenda.
The Flippable community supported fifteen candidates who won seats in the Pennsylvania State House and State Senate in 2018. If Democrats finish the job and flip both the state House (110R–93D) and state Senate (28R–21D–1I), Pennsylvania will become a Democratic trifecta as Governor Tom Wolf’s term doesn’t end until 2022.
With a Democratic trifecta in place, Pennsylvania could avoid another decade of extreme gerrymandering while entering a new era of policy-making. Regarding the former, Pennsylvania GOP had gerrymandered the state’s congressional districts so badly during the 2011 redistricting process that the maps were among the most distorted in the nation. As for policy, as Climate Cabinet Action Fund notes, one example of what a blue Pennsylvania could do is join the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). In September, Governor Wolf — who signed an executive order last year to have Pennsylvania join the cap-and-trade program via a regulatory process (the process is ongoing) — vetoed a GOP bill that would prohibit the state from joining the RGGI without approval from the General Assembly.
In 2018, nine Flippable candidates won their races for the Texas State House in a wave of Democratic victories that represented the chamber’s largest shift since the 2010 midterms. Thanks to those flips, as well as community-based organizing and strategic investments, control of the state House (83R–67D) is up for grabs this month.
Flipping the Texas State House would allow Democrats to provide input during the redistricting process next year and hinder GOP lawmakers’ ability to pass conservative legislation. The Texas GOP has used racial and partisan gerrymandering to its benefit since 2011, and with Texas expected to gain up to three congressional seats after the 2020 census, there’s a lot at stake in redistricting.
Texas has also been an incubator for extreme conservative policy, from passing the nation’s first strict voter ID law (shortly after the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act in Shelby County v. Holder in 2013) to passing House Bill 2, which — although later struck down by the Supreme Court — held abortion providers to surgical center standards and led to the closure of almost half the state’s clinics.
From gerrymandering voting maps in 2011 to using the 2018 lame-duck session to undermine newly elected Democratic governor Tony Evers’s powers, the Wisconsin GOP has consistently proven that its priorities lie with the Republican party rather than the people of Wisconsin. Democrats’ best defense against continued Republican malfeasance is by preventing supermajorities — which the GOP can use to override Evers’s veto — in the Wisconsin State Assembly (63R–36D) and State Senate (19R–14D).
* * *
